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北京赛车稳赢:Directional decentralization favors cyclical plates

时间:2018/4/18 21:14:56  作者:  来源:  浏览:0  评论:0
内容摘要: The central bank announced the "replacement" targeted reduction measures on April 17. From April 25th onwards, almost all the maj...

The central bank announced the "replacement" targeted reduction measures on April 17. From April 25th onwards, almost all the major financial institutions adjusted their deposit reserve 1 , and the liquidity released was about 1.3 trillion. The main purpose of the directional RRR cut is to ease the pressure on the bank debt, reduce capital costs, monetary policy wide currency tight credit may have some changes, but need to wait for the follow-up policy to gradually verify. According to the official introduction of the central bank, the liquidity of the current RRR cut is mainly used to hedge about 900 billion MLF expiring on the same day. In addition, the incremental capital of 400 billion yuan is expected to hedging the financial deposits. Generally speaking, the balance of the MLF of the inventory is carried out. Replacement, taking into account the tax payment and other factors at the end of April, the hedging intention of lowering the standard is even more pronounced. At present, high-frequency data show that the economy has not stalled, and gradually returning to work after the delay starts will be gradually reflected. The need to use monetary policy to stabilize the economy is still small.

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In the medium term, whether the interest rate will continue to fall, we think there are many points to pay attention to. One is the Fed’s monetary policy, and the other is the economic growth after the country’s return to work, and even the impact of the trade war, so it is difficult to make a final conclusion. . According to the Governor Yi Gang's statement at the Boao Forum in Hainan, it is a relatively appropriate range for the spread between China and the United States to maintain around 80-100 BP. Only the U.S. interest rate continues to decline. It is possible that China's interest rate differential and exchange rate will affect China's interest rates to continue to fall.

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The market decline since February is essentially a revaluation of financial risk, geopolitics, and economic downside risks. The recently released economic data, , and ZTE's were banned by the United States, all adding to market uncertainty and risk aversion. In the short term, there may be pessimism, and it is appropriate to find trading value opportunities in the second quarter. The recent market concerns over economic fundamentals have been excessive. The short-term positives brought about by the targeted reduction will be conducive to the adjustment of more obvious cyclical sectors such as finance, real estate, and upstream resources.


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